| 5 day outcome | 30 day outcome | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEWS ≥5 | NEWS ≥7 | NEWS ≥5 | NEWS ≥7 | |||||
| Death (95% CI) | Death or critical care admission (95% CI) | Death (95% CI) | Death or critical care admission (95% CI) | Death (95% CI) | Death or critical care admission (95% CI) | Death (95% CI) | Death or critical care admission (95% CI) | |
| NEWS recorded by GP | ||||||||
| Sensitivity | 49%(33-65) | 38%(31-47) | 21%(10-36) | 25%(18-33) | 37%(29-46) | 37%(30-45) | 23%(16-31) | 24%(18-32) |
| Specificity | 83%(81-84) | 84%(82-85) | 93%(91-94) | 94%(92-95) | 83%(82-85) | 84%(82-85) | 93%(92-94) | 94%(92-95) |
| Positive predictive value | 5%(3-8) | 15%(12-19) | 5%(2-10) | 22%(16-29) | 12%(9-16) | 15%(12-19) | 17%(12-24) | 23%(17-30) |
| Negative predictive value | 99%(98-99) | 95%(94-96) | 98%(98-99) | 94%(93-95) | 96%(95-96) | 94%(93-95) | 95%(94-96) | 94%(93-95) |
| Positive likelihood ratio | 2.8(2.1–3.9) | 2.3(1.9–2.9) | 2.8(1.5–5.1) | 3.9(2.8–5.3) | 2.2(1.8–2.8) | 2.3(1.8–2.8) | 3.4(2.4–4.8) | 3.8(2.8–5.2) |
| Negative likelihood ratio | 0.6(0.5–0.8) | 0.7(0.7–0.8) | 0.9(0.7–1.0) | 0.8(0.7–0.9) | 0.8(0.7–0.9) | 0.8(0.7–0.9) | 0.8(0.8–0.9) | 0.8(0.7–0.9) |
| NEWS recorded by ambulance | ||||||||
| Sensitivity | 62%(46-77) | 53%(45-62) | 42%(27-59) | 32%(24-40) | 54%(45-62) | 53%(45-61) | 24%(18-30) | 31%(24-39) |
| Specificity | 67%(64-70) | 69%(66-72) | 85%(83-87) | 86%(84-88) | 69%(66-72) | 69%(66-72) | 86%(84-88) | 86%(84-88) |
| Positive predictive value | 7%(4-10) | 21%(17-25) | 9%(6-15) | 26%(20-33) | 19%(15-23) | 21%(17-26) | 24%(18-30) | 26%(20-33) |
| Negative predictive value | 98%(97-99) | 91%(88-93) | 98%(96-98) | 89%(87%–91%) | 92%(90-94) | 90%(88-92) | 86%(84-88) | 89%(87-91) |
| Positive likelihood ratio | 1.9(1.5–2.5) | 1.7(1.4–2.1) | 2.8(1.9–4.1) | 2.3(1.7–3.1) | 1.7(1.4–2.1) | 1.7(1.5–2.1) | 1.7(1.3–2.3) | 2.2(1.7–3.0) |
| Negative likelihood ratio | 0.6(0.4–0.8) | 0.7(0.6–0.8) | 0.7(0.5–0.9) | 0.8(0.7–0.9) | 0.7(0.6–0.8) | 0.7(0.6–0.8) | 0.9(0.8–1.0) | 0.8(0.7-.0.9) |
NEWS = national early warning scores.