| Parameter | Probability (base-case value) | Lower and upper bounds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probabilities common to all strategies | |||
| Prevalence of HF among patients suspected with this condition | 0.5 | 0.45; 0.55 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of referral to pulmonary department if negative test | 0.1 | 0.0; 0.2 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of referral to pulmonary department if positive test | 0.0 | 0.0; 0.0 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of referral to hospital if new GP visit with false negative test result | 1.0 | – | Expert opinion |
| Clinical diagnosis strategy | |||
| Sensitivity | 0.56 | 0.51; 0.61 | National Clinical Guideline Centre (UK)10 |
| Specificity | 0.68 | 0.62; 0.73 | National Clinical Guideline Centre (UK)10 |
| Probability of referral to hospital if negative test | 0.6 | 0.4; 0.8 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of referral to hospital if positive test | 1.0 | – | Expert opinion |
| Probability of spirometry | 0.9 | 0.8; 1 | Expert opinion and online survey |
| POC test strategy | |||
| Sensitivity | 0.9 | 0.85; 0.95 | Schäfer et al11 Bertsch et al12 |
| Specificity | 0.65 | 0.6; 0.7 | Schäfer et al11 Bertsch et al12 |
| Probability of referral to hospital if negative test | 0.4 | 0.3; 0.5 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of referral to hospital if positive test | 1.0 | – | Expert opinion |
| Probability of spirometry | 0.2 | 0.1; 0.3 | Expert opinion and online survey |
| Hospital test strategy | |||
| Sensitivity | 0.9 | 0.85; 0.95 | Schäfer et al11 Bertsch et al12 |
| Specificity | 0.65 | 0.6; 0.7 | Schäfer et al,11 Bertsch et al12 |
| Probability of referral to hospital if negative test | 0.4 | 0.3; 0.5 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of referral to hospital if positive test | 1.0 | – | Expert opinion |
| Probability of phone consultation if positive test | 0.2 | 0.1; 0.3 | Estimate based on online survey |
| Probability of spirometry | 0.8 | 0.7; 0.9 | Expert opinion and online survey |
HF = heart failure.