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Research

How decontextualised risk information affects clinicians’ understanding of risk and uncertainty in primary care diagnosis: a qualitative study of clinical vignettes

Alex Burns, Elizabeth Shephard, Raff Calitri, Adrian Mercer, Edmund Jack, Mark Tarrant and Sarah Dean
BJGP Open 2025; 9 (4): BJGPO.2025.0040. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGPO.2025.0040
Alex Burns
1 Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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  • For correspondence: ab1265{at}exeter.ac.uk
Elizabeth Shephard
1 Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Raff Calitri
2 University of Plymouth, School of Psychology, Plymouth, UK
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Adrian Mercer
3 Patient and Public Contributor, Devon, UK
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Edmund Jack
4 Peninsula Medical School, Plymouth, UK
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Mark Tarrant
2 University of Plymouth, School of Psychology, Plymouth, UK
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Sarah Dean
1 Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Article Figures & Data

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    Table 1. Participant characteristics
    Characteristics of participantNumber of participants
    SexFemale5
    Male4
    Professional roleGP partner2
    Salaried or locuma 3
    GP ST3 trainee4
    Total years of clinical experience (since medical qualification)>20 years1
    15–19 years3
    10–14 years3
    5–9 years2
    Years of clinical experience in primary care>15 years1
    10–14 years3
    5–9 years1
    <5 years4
    Self-reported risk and uncertainty tolerance
    Compared with your peers, are you more or less tolerant of risk?More risk tolerant than peers5
    About average0
    Less risk tolerant than peers4
    Compared with your peers, do you order fewer, or more tests?More than peers2
    About average4
    Fewer than peers3
    Compared with your peers, how well do you handle uncertainty?Better than average4
    About average3
    Worse than average2
    Prior relationship to participant No prior relationship5
    Had met beforeb 2
    Had worked together2
    • aNone of the participants were purely salaried. All performed locum roles in addition. bParticipants who AB had met on one or more occasion before, but not been work colleagues. For example, contact in educational sessions

Supplementary Data

  • AB_10.3399BJGPO.2025.0040_supp_v1.pdf -

    Supplementary material is not copyedited or typeset, and is published as supplied by the author(s). The author(s) retain(s) responsibility for its accuracy.

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December 2025
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How decontextualised risk information affects clinicians’ understanding of risk and uncertainty in primary care diagnosis: a qualitative study of clinical vignettes
Alex Burns, Elizabeth Shephard, Raff Calitri, Adrian Mercer, Edmund Jack, Mark Tarrant, Sarah Dean
BJGP Open 2025; 9 (4): BJGPO.2025.0040. DOI: 10.3399/BJGPO.2025.0040

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How decontextualised risk information affects clinicians’ understanding of risk and uncertainty in primary care diagnosis: a qualitative study of clinical vignettes
Alex Burns, Elizabeth Shephard, Raff Calitri, Adrian Mercer, Edmund Jack, Mark Tarrant, Sarah Dean
BJGP Open 2025; 9 (4): BJGPO.2025.0040. DOI: 10.3399/BJGPO.2025.0040
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Keywords

  • primary health care
  • diagnosis
  • uncertainty
  • general practitioners

More in this TOC Section

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  • Slow walking speed and risk of cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review
  • Experiences of dyslexia in GP training in the UK: a qualitative study
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