Future career intentions of recent GP graduates in Ireland: a trend analysis study

Background A lack of manpower and negative health statistics have increased the workload for Irish GPs. Consequently, recent GP graduates are considering emigration or part-time employment.

Aim To report on trends of the current status and future work intentions of recent GP graduates in Ireland.

Design & setting Quantitative study based on online surveys in the Irish setting.

Method A ‘career intentions’ survey was emailed to all recent GP graduates in Ireland, in 2014, 2015, and 2017. The data presented includes GPs who graduated in the previous 4 years at each survey time point. The average response rate across the three surveys was 38.2%.

Results The number of graduates who had already emigrated increased over the survey years, accounted for 16.9% in 2014, 17.4% in 2015, and 19.2% in 2017 survey. The majority of doctors who emigrated did so in the first 2 years after graduation (74.7%). ‘Quality of life’ became the most frequent reason for emigration over the survey years, accounting for 32.0% in the 2017 survey. In the 2014 survey, 47.3% of graduates stated that they intend to work part-time in 5 years; this rose to 51.2% in 2015, reaching 60.0% in 2017. Female participants were more than twice as likely to plan to work part time in 5 years compared to their male colleagues, across all three surveys.

Conclusion The first and second years after graduation were the most critical for emigration. Interventions in this period may reduce the 'brain drain' of Irish GPs. Part-time working is becoming more attractive and should be considered in future workforce planning.